I have heard that one of the strongest leading indicators is when the S&P500 creates a higher high and a lower low than the previous month, it tells you that a change in the overall direction is in the wings.
Here are the monthly closes since 1999. It definitely holds during this brief time period
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SPY&a=00&b=29&c=1999&d=03&e=3&f=2009&g=m&z=66&y=66
Monday, April 6, 2009
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